Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 16¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$255.68

Smart Money Entry

15.3¢ → 15.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$796.03

Total Shares928

Combined PnL+$53.67

Yes6 traders

Total Value$906.1

Total Shares6,413

Combined PnL+$202.01

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

357h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 79¢	$100.33	$611.43	+$52.34	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$302.32	$453.48	+$151.16	50% 1093-1095 (2188)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$170	$175	+$5	49% 783-802 (1585)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$96.57	$144.85	+$48.28	47% 476-535 (1011)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$117.66	$118.25	+$0.59	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 83.2¢	$109.57	$102	+$1.83	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 83¢	$83.1	$82.6	-$0.5	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
PI piepedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$14.7	$11.67	-$3.03	42% 71-100 (171)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	59% 3437-2346 (5783)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$100.33

Value

$611.43

PnL

+$52.34

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$302.32

Value

$453.48

PnL

+$151.16

Record

50%

1093-1095 (2188)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$175

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

783-802 (1585)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$96.57

Value

$144.85

PnL

+$48.28

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.66

Value

$118.25

PnL

+$0.59

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

ghorrock

Invested

$109.57

Value

$102

PnL

+$1.83

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$83.1

Value

$82.6

PnL

-$0.5

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

piepedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.7

Value

$11.67

PnL

-$3.03

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3437-2346 (5783)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

357h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.1%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$486.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

586.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.