Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.9K
$16.94
66.9¢ → 99.1¢
+48% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 63¢ | $612.5 | $956.21 | +$150.7 | 50% 1098-1105 (2203) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71.6¢ | $870.96 | $489.16 | -$139.55 | 35% 17800-33165 (50965) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 63.9¢ | $360.22 | $301.9 | -$13.06 | 15% 435-2472 (2907) |
 balthazar | Noavg 80.2¢ | $94.55 | $115.88 | +$21.33 | 53% 28804-25713 (54517) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.53 | $29.51 | -$0.02 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
 thanksforplayinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $3.35 | $0.22 | -$3.13 | 55% 406-335 (741) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0.68 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
Invested
$612.5
Value
$956.21
PnL
+$150.7
Record
50%
1098-1105 (2203)
Invested
$870.96
Value
$489.16
PnL
-$139.55
Record
35%
17800-33165 (50965)
IstarothInvested
$360.22
Value
$301.9
PnL
-$13.06
Record
15%
435-2472 (2907)
balthazarInvested
$94.55
Value
$115.88
PnL
+$21.33
Record
53%
28804-25713 (54517)
Invested
$29.53
Value
$29.51
PnL
-$0.02
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$3.13
Record
55%
406-335 (741)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0.68
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.