Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 6%-9%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 52¢ · $165 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$164.61
$10.66
61.1¢ → 52¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $73.75 | $84.35 | +$10.6 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $51.25 | $51.25 | +$0 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 longliveapples<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $22.43 | $22.43 | +$0 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $5.2 | $5.4 | +$0.2 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $1.32 | $1.19 | -$0.13 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
Invested
$73.75
Value
$84.35
PnL
+$10.6
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$51.25
Value
$51.25
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
longliveapples<$100Invested
$22.43
Value
$22.43
PnL
+$0
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.19
PnL
-$0.13
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.