Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (50%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3%-6%?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 50¢ · $611 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$610.61
-$28.92
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 longliveapplesCTR | Yesavg 60.9¢ | $392.13 | $391.06 | -$1.07 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 40.1¢ | $192.78 | $168.74 | -$24.04 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 36.3¢ | $45.35 | $43.88 | -$1.47 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $3.51 | -$2.99 | 62% 1295-778 (2073) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 31.2¢ | $2.5 | $2.81 | +$0.31 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $0.28 | $0.62 | +$0.34 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
longliveapplesCTRInvested
$392.13
Value
$391.06
PnL
-$1.07
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$192.78
Value
$168.74
PnL
-$24.04
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$45.35
Value
$43.88
PnL
-$1.47
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$3.51
PnL
-$2.99
Record
62%
1295-778 (2073)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.81
PnL
+$0.31
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0.34
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.