Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 35%-40%?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $77 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$77.44
-$4.23
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $30.3 | $30 | -$0.3 | 42% 6041-8253 (14294) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $14.9 | $14.06 | -$0.84 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $14.9 | $14.06 | -$0.84 | 61% 13978-8791 (22769) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $9.96 | $9.38 | -$0.59 | 50% 7869-7957 (15826) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $4.69 | -$0.01 | 59% 3563-2477 (6040) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.08 | $2.63 | +$2.54 | 50% 1097-1102 (2199) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $6.62 | $2.19 | -$4.43 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.21 | $0.44 | +$0.23 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
Invested
$30.3
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
6041-8253 (14294)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$14.06
PnL
-$0.84
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$14.06
PnL
-$0.84
Record
61%
13978-8791 (22769)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$0.59
Record
50%
7869-7957 (15826)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.01
Record
59%
3563-2477 (6040)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$2.54
Record
50%
1097-1102 (2199)
Invested
$6.62
Value
$2.19
PnL
-$4.43
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.44
PnL
+$0.23
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.