Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$37.28

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,226

Combined PnL+$18.01

Yes5 traders

Total Value$13.61

Total Shares862

Combined PnL-$55.28

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.2¢	$898.06	$894.34	+$16.17	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$84.75	$84.62	-$0.13	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
Lucerys	Noavg 96¢	$155.87	$67.3	+$2.4	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$62.33	$65.86	+$3.69	50% 99-98 (197)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.8¢	$114.25	$48.19	-$5.65	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$39.28	$40.82	+$1.54	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$20.99	$20.98	-$0.01	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$51.58	$12.01	-$39.57	52% 1715-1569 (3284)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$283.28	$1.09	-$13.32	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.22	$0.34	+$0.11	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
BlondBeastCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$2.18	$0.15	-$2.02	69% 804-357 (1161)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.52	$0.03	-$0.5	48% 23-25 (48)

balthazar

Invested

$898.06

Value

$894.34

PnL

+$16.17

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$84.75

Value

$84.62

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Lucerys

Invested

$155.87

Value

$67.3

PnL

+$2.4

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$62.33

Value

$65.86

PnL

+$3.69

Record

50%

99-98 (197)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$114.25

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$5.65

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$39.28

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$1.54

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$20.99

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.58

Value

$12.01

PnL

-$39.57

Record

52%

1715-1569 (3284)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.28

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$13.32

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.11

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

BlondBeastCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.02

Record

69%

804-357 (1161)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

23-25 (48)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.