Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 1?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 39¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$10.5K
$77.98
41.9¢ → 39¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Noavg 59.9¢ | $8.8K | $8.7K | -$136.08 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.9¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$18.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$155.01 | |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $2.9K | $1.4K | -$43.93 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $925.33 | $936 | +$20 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.6¢ | $508.4 | $488 | -$63.93 | |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $1.2K | $374.79 | +$77.48 | 59% 2237-1570 (3807) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $21 | $19.5 | +$0.5 | 53% 3724-3238 (6962) |
Invested
$8,799.43
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$136.08
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,944.34
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$43.93
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,245.54
Value
$374.79
PnL
+$77.48
Record
59%
2237-1570 (3807)
Invested
$21
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
3724-3238 (6962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.