Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.5K
-$5.81
66.5¢ → 62.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$189.76 | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $2.1K | $710.14 | +$18.59 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $602.69 | $390.48 | -$212.22 | 59% 2166-1522 (3688) |
 balthazar | Noavg 84¢ | $186.33 | $182.94 | -$3.39 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $8.25 | +$1.45 | 53% 3692-3209 (6901) |
Invested
$2,976.61
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$189.76
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
Invested
$2,053.98
Value
$710.14
PnL
+$18.59
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$602.69
Value
$390.48
PnL
-$212.22
Record
59%
2166-1522 (3688)
balthazarInvested
$186.33
Value
$182.94
PnL
-$3.39
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$1.45
Record
53%
3692-3209 (6901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.