Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$9.5K
$1.4K
74.5¢ → 94.9¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $6.0K | $7.8K | +$1.9K | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $3.3K | $800 | -$458.4 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
 balthazar | Noavg 77.5¢ | $398.36 | $474.85 | +$76.49 | 61% 21127-13453 (34580) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $1.4K | $393.08 | -$134.44 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $44 | $39.75 | -$4.25 | 53% 3708-3225 (6933) |
Invested
$5,964.24
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$3,321.9
Value
$800
PnL
-$458.4
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
balthazarInvested
$398.36
Value
$474.85
PnL
+$76.49
Record
61%
21127-13453 (34580)
Invested
$1,365.69
Value
$393.08
PnL
-$134.44
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
Invested
$44
Value
$39.75
PnL
-$4.25
Record
53%
3708-3225 (6933)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.