Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Yashar + Together + YB + Democrats + Shas + UTJ?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $132 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$132.07
$8.93
92.2¢ → 95.9¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $63.77 | $68.52 | +$4.74 | 40% 3363-5001 (8364) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $29.54 | $29.32 | -$0.22 | 43% 2587-3438 (6025) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $21.5 | $22.07 | +$0.57 | 19% 25-107 (132) |
 ydxisthekingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $8.35 | $10.06 | +$1.71 | 5% 1-21 (22) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $34.97 | $2.09 | +$2.12 | 13% 51-350 (401) |
Invested
$63.77
Value
$68.52
PnL
+$4.74
Record
40%
3363-5001 (8364)
Invested
$29.54
Value
$29.32
PnL
-$0.22
Record
43%
2587-3438 (6025)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$22.07
PnL
+$0.57
Record
19%
25-107 (132)
ydxisthekingCTR<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
$10.06
PnL
+$1.71
Record
5%
1-21 (22)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$34.97
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$2.12
Record
13%
51-350 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.