Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 23, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 14¢ · $27 held · ends Nov 24
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$26.73
$17.11
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $6.14 | $17.48 | +$11.34 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.62 | $5.62 | +$5 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.5 | $2.86 | +$0.24 | 27% 659-1763 (2422) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $0.68 | +$0.53 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
Invested
$6.14
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$11.34
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$5
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$2.86
PnL
+$0.24
Record
27%
659-1763 (2422)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.53
Record
41%
2520-3700 (6220)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.