Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 20, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 30¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 21
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$85.28
$115.04
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $72.8 | $77.66 | +$108.15 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $0.58 | $6.09 | +$5.51 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $1.52 | +$1.37 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.