Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$376.48
-$170.88
51.1¢ → 6.5¢
-87% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $297.23 | $122.41 | -$174.82 | 45% 132-162 (294) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 63¢ | $96.13 | $100.57 | +$4.44 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $94 | $93.5 | -$0.5 | 2% 2-109 (111) |
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $53.4 | $56.4 | +$3 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $6.6 | $3.6 | -$3 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Invested
$297.23
Value
$122.41
PnL
-$174.82
Record
45%
132-162 (294)
Invested
$96.13
Value
$100.57
PnL
+$4.44
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
Invested
$94
Value
$93.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
2%
2-109 (111)
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$53.4
Value
$56.4
PnL
+$3
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$3
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.