Will The Great Divide (Noah Kahan) be nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 62¢ · $274 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$274.17
-$25.87
72.6¢ → 61.5¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU buoys | Yesavg 72.8¢ | $268.59 | $232.3 | -$36.29 | — 0-11 (11) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $18.39 | $26.17 | +$7.78 | 62% 1323-795 (2118) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $4.86 | $7.5 | +$2.63 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $5.16 | $5.04 | -$0.12 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $3.03 | $3.15 | +$0.12 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
Invested
$268.59
Value
$232.3
PnL
-$36.29
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$18.39
Value
$26.17
PnL
+$7.78
Record
62%
1323-795 (2118)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$2.63
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.12
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0.12
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.