Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 78¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$413.65
$24.8
78.7¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 77.9¢ | $94.28 | $100.41 | +$6.13 | 29% 172-429 (601) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $90.51 | $97.56 | +$7.05 | 40% 393-591 (984) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $49.13 | $64.64 | +$15.51 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 84.9¢ | $205.69 | $62 | -$9.45 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $54.73 | $58.25 | +$3.52 | 29% 195-489 (684) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $28.76 | $30.78 | +$2.02 | 0% 0-28 (28) |
Invested
$94.28
Value
$100.41
PnL
+$6.13
Record
29%
172-429 (601)
Invested
$90.51
Value
$97.56
PnL
+$7.05
Record
40%
393-591 (984)
Invested
$49.13
Value
$64.64
PnL
+$15.51
Record
41%
11-16 (27)
Invested
$205.69
Value
$62
PnL
-$9.45
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$54.73
Value
$58.25
PnL
+$3.52
Record
29%
195-489 (684)
Invested
$28.76
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$2.02
Record
0%
0-28 (28)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.