Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$157.77

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 22.5¢

-30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$138.19

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$0.34

No9 traders

Total Value$406.45

Total Shares1,846

Combined PnL-$158.11

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 66.5¢	$687.28	$582.75	-$98.7	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.5¢	$445.34	$435.4	-$10.56
└ No leg	Noavg 35.2¢	$235.52	$147.36	-$88.14
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 61.1¢	$89.08	$94.69	+$6.34	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$244.7	$85.87	-$55.53	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 32.6¢	$121.13	$81.62	-$39.51	17% 1249-5908 (7157)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$95	$66	-$29	50% 99-98 (197)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Noavg 34¢	$73.5	$66	-$7.5	55% 3145-2528 (5673)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$72	$52.8	-$19.2	29% 2440-5849 (8289)
LP lpgb<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$49.5	$43.5	-$6	28% 485-1268 (1753)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 27.6¢	$35.07	$27.94	-$7.13	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$18.7	$19.13	+$0.43	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$7.2	$6.6	-$0.6	61% 14874-9334 (24208)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$0.57	$0.5	-$0.07	50% 659-658 (1317)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$687.28

Value

$582.75

PnL

-$98.7

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

Yes$445.3466.5¢-$10.56

No$235.5235.2¢-$88.14

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.08

Value

$94.69

PnL

+$6.34

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$244.7

Value

$85.87

PnL

-$55.53

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$121.13

Value

$81.62

PnL

-$39.51

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$95

Value

$66

PnL

-$29

Record

50%

99-98 (197)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Invested

$73.5

Value

$66

PnL

-$7.5

Record

55%

3145-2528 (5673)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$52.8

PnL

-$19.2

Record

29%

2440-5849 (8289)

lpgb<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.5

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$6

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$35.07

Value

$27.94

PnL

-$7.13

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$0.43

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

61%

14874-9334 (24208)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.2%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$312.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

412.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.