Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 30%-35%?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$49.2

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 96.9¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,410

Combined PnL+$52.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.26

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$3.3

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 82.7¢	$466.33	$546.42	+$80.08	50% 1098-1105 (2203)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 72.4¢	$200.68	$268.27	+$67.59	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.8¢	$956.1	$265.52	-$26.44	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
Istaroth	Noavg 86.7¢	$684.15	$240	-$76.46	15% 459-2699 (3158)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$38.19	$42.28	+$4.09	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$18.72	$19.83	+$1.12	50% 634-639 (1273)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$7.17	$9.69	+$2.52	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$2.02	$0.63	+$1.07	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$0.63	-$4.37	— 6-7 (13)

Albert 1953

Invested

$466.33

Value

$546.42

PnL

+$80.08

Record

50%

1098-1105 (2203)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$200.68

Value

$268.27

PnL

+$67.59

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$956.1

Value

$265.52

PnL

-$26.44

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Istaroth

Invested

$684.15

Value

$240

PnL

-$76.46

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$38.19

Value

$42.28

PnL

+$4.09

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$19.83

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$2.52

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$1.07

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$4.37

Record

—

6-7 (13)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.