Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 40%-45%?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 96¢ · $617 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$616.53
$15.12
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
123h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 longliveapples | Yesavg 89.4¢ | $540.72 | $582.01 | +$41.29 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.6¢ | $53 | $29.5 | -$23.5 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 5.9¢ | $1.77 | $1.77 | +$0 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 10.9¢ | $3.27 | $1.77 | -$1.5 | 28% 825-2133 (2958) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.5¢ | $2.1 | $1.18 | -$0.92 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.9¢ | $0.55 | $0.3 | -$0.25 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
longliveapplesInvested
$540.72
Value
$582.01
PnL
+$41.29
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$53
Value
$29.5
PnL
-$23.5
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$1.5
Record
28%
825-2133 (2958)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.92
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.25
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.