Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$56.31

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 90.5¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,782

Combined PnL+$215.72

Yes5 traders

Total Value$270.29

Total Shares3,014

Combined PnL-$272.03

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 80.6¢	$575.16	$595.14	+$25.8	50% 1098-1105 (2203)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 77.9¢	$530.31	$290.04	+$11.48	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 81.7¢	$102.4	$271.73	+$1.54	71% 7086-2836 (9922)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 19.1¢	$392.97	$175.02	-$217.95	66% 54-28 (82)
PI pieped	Noavg 92¢	$160.1	$146.49	-$0.8	43% 89-120 (209)
balthazar	Noavg 71.5¢	$96.49	$122.82	+$26.34	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 42.4¢	$55.1	$118.2	+$63.1	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$77.93	$56	-$21.93	46% 2751-3295 (6046)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 80¢	$40	$45.5	+$5.5	20% 2564-10155 (12719)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 25.9¢	$26.84	$40.04	+$69.22	42% 6915-9707 (16622)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$68.68	$37.32	-$31.36	59% 3704-2571 (6275)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$32.58	$30.99	+$12.85	73% 13784-5222 (19006)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$33.23	$9.1	+$0.68	49% 8748-9254 (18002)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$1.62	$1.13	-$0.49	53% 9914-8629 (18543)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$5.75	$0.82	-$0.29	58% 19331-14228 (33559)

Albert 1953

Invested

$575.16

Value

$595.14

PnL

+$25.8

Record

50%

1098-1105 (2203)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$530.31

Value

$290.04

PnL

+$11.48

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$102.4

Value

$271.73

PnL

+$1.54

Record

71%

7086-2836 (9922)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$392.97

Value

$175.02

PnL

-$217.95

Record

66%

54-28 (82)

pieped

Invested

$160.1

Value

$146.49

PnL

-$0.8

Record

43%

89-120 (209)

balthazar

Invested

$96.49

Value

$122.82

PnL

+$26.34

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$55.1

Value

$118.2

PnL

+$63.1

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.93

Value

$56

PnL

-$21.93

Record

46%

2751-3295 (6046)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

20%

2564-10155 (12719)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.84

Value

$40.04

PnL

+$69.22

Record

42%

6915-9707 (16622)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.68

Value

$37.32

PnL

-$31.36

Record

59%

3704-2571 (6275)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$32.58

Value

$30.99

PnL

+$12.85

Record

73%

13784-5222 (19006)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$33.23

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

8748-9254 (18002)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

9914-8629 (18543)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.