Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 38¢ · $787 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$787.05
-$86.6
64¢ → 38¢
-41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953CTR | Noavg 63.7¢ | $557.23 | $332.45 | -$224.78 | 50% 1149-1163 (2312) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $149 | $221.55 | +$72.55 | 34% 19370-36924 (56294) |
 RayGuy | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $15 | $118.42 | +$87.51 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $78.35 | $46.36 | -$31.99 | 69% 7246-3212 (10458) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 79.7¢ | $33.18 | $26.04 | -$7.14 | 47% 4080-4639 (8719) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $20.34 | $22.52 | +$2.36 | 56% 718-566 (1284) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $2.08 | $19.7 | +$14.89 | 67% 27570-13865 (41435) |
Invested
$557.23
Value
$332.45
PnL
-$224.78
Record
50%
1149-1163 (2312)
Invested
$149
Value
$221.55
PnL
+$72.55
Record
34%
19370-36924 (56294)
RayGuyInvested
$15
Value
$118.42
PnL
+$87.51
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$78.35
Value
$46.36
PnL
-$31.99
Record
69%
7246-3212 (10458)
Invested
$33.18
Value
$26.04
PnL
-$7.14
Record
47%
4080-4639 (8719)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$20.34
Value
$22.52
PnL
+$2.36
Record
56%
718-566 (1284)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$19.7
PnL
+$14.89
Record
67%
27570-13865 (41435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.