Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 38¢ · $798 held · ended Nov 4

Yes63¢No37¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$797.99

Combined PnL

-$71.61

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 37.5¢

-41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$373.95

Total Shares997

Combined PnL-$231.43

Yes6 traders

Total Value$424.02

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$159.82

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953CTR	Noavg 63.7¢	$557.23	$328.08	-$229.15	50% 1148-1162 (2310)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 33.5¢	$150.79	$223.34	+$72.55	34% 19138-36780 (55918)
RayGuy	Yesavg 7.9¢	$15	$119.38	+$87.51	85% 23-4 (27)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 66¢	$110.82	$38.25	-$22.57	69% 7203-3186 (10389)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 79.7¢	$40.54	$26.25	-$9.29	47% 4058-4607 (8665)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$20.34	$22.7	+$0.18	56% 689-551 (1240)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$2.08	$19.86	+$12.98	67% 27455-13809 (41264)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$53.4	$12.5	-$4.11	19% 2852-12168 (15020)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$9.9	$5.63	-$4.28	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$79.93	$2	+$24.57	40% 6508-9755 (16263)

Albert 1953CTR

Invested

$557.23

Value

$328.08

PnL

-$229.15

Record

50%

1148-1162 (2310)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$150.79

Value

$223.34

PnL

+$72.55

Record

34%

19138-36780 (55918)

RayGuy

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$119.38

PnL

+$87.51

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$110.82

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$22.57

Record

69%

7203-3186 (10389)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.54

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$9.29

Record

47%

4058-4607 (8665)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.34

Value

$22.7

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

689-551 (1240)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$12.98

Record

67%

27455-13809 (41264)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.4

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$4.11

Record

19%

2852-12168 (15020)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$4.28

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$79.93

Value

PnL

+$24.57

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.4%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$153.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

253.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.