Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (84%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 16¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 16¢

-75% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,330

Combined PnL+$149.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,207

Combined PnL+$983.02

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

165h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953CTR	Noavg 66.1¢	$731.2	$802.55	+$71.34	50% 1098-1105 (2203)
mombil	Yesavg 19¢	$201.89	$775.68	+$573.79	56% 1221-979 (2200)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$546.69	$428.8	+$164.8	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.2¢	$162	$229.18	+$63.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.8¢	$172.6	$199.63	+$101.15
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 74.4¢	$283.28	$276.22	-$7.06	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 53.7¢	$457.74	$234.58	+$279.74	59% 3711-2579 (6290)
SM smallreceiptCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$105.67	$205.9	+$100.23	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Noavg 77.3¢	$210.61	$197.41	-$13.2	59% 13-9 (22)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$126.18	$125.05	-$0.04	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$87.68	$90.66	+$3.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$37.51	$34.39	-$3.04
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$47.3	$62.35	-$33.97	28% 479-1254 (1733)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 14¢	$135.21	$57.61	+$118.65	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 36.7¢	$29.03	$57.4	+$28.37	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$42.05	$44.6	+$2.55	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$38.07	$36.8	-$1.27	50% 657-658 (1315)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$20.43	$12.49	+$14.3	56% 452-353 (805)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yes	$10.04	$10.04	-$3.47	25% 1718-5214 (6932)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.2	$7.25	+$1.05	53% 8223-7324 (15547)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.8	$1.9	+$1.1	59% 11831-8157 (19988)

Albert 1953CTR

Invested

$731.2

Value

$802.55

PnL

+$71.34

Record

50%

1098-1105 (2203)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$201.89

Value

$775.68

PnL

+$573.79

Record

56%

1221-979 (2200)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$546.69

Value

$428.8

PnL

+$164.8

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$16251.2¢+$63.65

Yes$172.623.8¢+$101.15

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$283.28

Value

$276.22

PnL

-$7.06

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$457.74

Value

$234.58

PnL

+$279.74

Record

59%

3711-2579 (6290)

smallreceiptCTR

Invested

$105.67

Value

$205.9

PnL

+$100.23

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Invested

$210.61

Value

$197.41

PnL

-$13.2

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$126.18

Value

$125.05

PnL

-$0.04

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$87.6870.1¢+$3.01

Yes$37.5130¢-$3.04

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$47.3

Value

$62.35

PnL

-$33.97

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$135.21

Value

$57.61

PnL

+$118.65

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$29.03

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$28.37

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$42.05

Value

$44.6

PnL

+$2.55

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$38.07

Value

$36.8

PnL

-$1.27

Record

50%

657-658 (1315)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.43

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$14.3

Record

56%

452-353 (805)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$3.47

Record

25%

1718-5214 (6932)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$1.1

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

165h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.6%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$469.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

569.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.