Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$145.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$96.9 | 50% 1093-1095 (2188) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $751.94 | $880 | +$48.06 | 40% 704-1063 (1767) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $594.07 | $301.99 | +$7.8 | 37% 16320-28154 (44474) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.7¢ | $176.68 | $177.42 | -$82.24 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $120.59 | $124.56 | +$90.05 | |
 StarMasterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.24 | $3.96 | +$0.09 | 53% 1860-1642 (3502) |
Invested
$2,266.3
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$96.9
Record
50%
1093-1095 (2188)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$751.94
Value
$880
PnL
+$48.06
Record
40%
704-1063 (1767)
Invested
$594.07
Value
$301.99
PnL
+$7.8
Record
37%
16320-28154 (44474)
Both legs:
StarMasterCTR<$100Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
1860-1642 (3502)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.