Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
-$482.05
75¢ → 54.9¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75¢ | $715.49 | $484.71 | -$230.77 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 71.9¢ | $545.6 | $404.39 | -$123.61 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
AV aviato | Noavg 92.5¢ | $338.2 | $201.46 | -$136.74 | — 4-0 (4) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $207.43 | $148.91 | +$9.22 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55.7¢ | $13.83 | $13.68 | -$0.15 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
Invested
$715.49
Value
$484.71
PnL
-$230.77
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
HaradwaithInvested
$545.6
Value
$404.39
PnL
-$123.61
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$338.2
Value
$201.46
PnL
-$136.74
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$207.43
Value
$148.91
PnL
+$9.22
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$13.83
Value
$13.68
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.