Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 92¢ · $502 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$501.59
-$28.32
87.1¢ → 91.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Yesavg 89.4¢ | $358.41 | $368.29 | +$9.87 | 85% 1870-338 (2208) |
 Donny.T | Yesavg 80.1¢ | $106.64 | $122.45 | +$15.81 | 72% 476-183 (659) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $59.86 | $5.69 | -$54.17 | 65% 1074-582 (1656) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $4.99 | $5.16 | +$0.17 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.