Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$92.51

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 74.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$967.29

Total Shares1,297

Combined PnL-$139.13

Yes5 traders

Total Value$121.42

Total Shares455

Combined PnL+$46.62

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 75.9¢	$628.84	$603.48	-$25.35	65% 597-323 (920)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$971.97	$436.72	+$25.3	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.5¢	$360.78	$343	-$177.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.5¢	$68.16	$93.72	+$202.38
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$361.82	$345.91	-$5.24	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.2¢	$263.45	$257.88	-$5.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.3¢	$84.04	$88.03	+$0.38
Haradwaith	Noavg 86.8¢	$595.93	$225.64	-$106.99	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
LI linethCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$9.42	$52.15	+$43.02	43% 268-356 (624)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$69.47	$50.11	-$1.26	17% 1239-5868 (7107)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.6¢	$33.1	$32.64	-$0.46	35% 169-309 (478)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$32.45	$32	-$0.45	18% 340-1570 (1910)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$31.65	$24.94	-$6.71	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$22.02	$22.4	+$0.38	46% 10307-11997 (22304)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$17.96	$22.39	+$4.42	56% 18290-14209 (32499)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$12.1	$11.9	-$0.2	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$45.47	$8.72	+$1.25	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$2.52	$2.35	-$0.16	77% 12289-3775 (16064)

melonmanm

Invested

$628.84

Value

$603.48

PnL

-$25.35

Record

65%

597-323 (920)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$971.97

Value

$436.72

PnL

+$25.3

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$360.7878.5¢-$177.08

Yes$68.1618.5¢+$202.38

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$361.82

Value

$345.91

PnL

-$5.24

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$263.4576.2¢-$5.62

Yes$84.0424.3¢+$0.38

Haradwaith

Invested

$595.93

Value

$225.64

PnL

-$106.99

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

linethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.42

Value

$52.15

PnL

+$43.02

Record

43%

268-356 (624)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$69.47

Value

$50.11

PnL

-$1.26

Record

17%

1239-5868 (7107)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.1

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$0.46

Record

35%

169-309 (478)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$32.45

Value

$32

PnL

-$0.45

Record

18%

340-1570 (1910)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$6.71

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$22.02

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.96

Value

$22.39

PnL

+$4.42

Record

56%

18290-14209 (32499)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.1

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$45.47

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.16

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.