Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$249.75
32.8¢ → 22.5¢
-31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
444h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $552.57 | $564.39 | +$40.68 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.6¢ | $365.29 | $433.28 | +$63.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $160.13 | $131.11 | -$22.52 | |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 87¢ | $435.99 | $390.56 | -$45.43 | 54% 742-632 (1374) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $456.28 | $299.18 | -$157.1 | 55% 217-179 (396) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $199.82 | $140.77 | -$49.88 | 50% 1080-1085 (2165) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $6.15 | $8.8 | +$2.65 | 63% 784-463 (1247) |
Invested
$552.57
Value
$564.39
PnL
+$40.68
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Both legs:
Invested
$435.99
Value
$390.56
PnL
-$45.43
Record
54%
742-632 (1374)
Invested
$456.28
Value
$299.18
PnL
-$157.1
Record
55%
217-179 (396)
Invested
$199.82
Value
$140.77
PnL
-$49.88
Record
50%
1080-1085 (2165)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$2.65
Record
63%
784-463 (1247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.