Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Scott Colom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $744 held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$744.26

Combined PnL

$-7.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$744.26

Total Shares1,488,527

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$4.2K	$320.7	$-3.8K	67% 820-395 (1215)
PE petanimalCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$848.33	$104.5	-$743.83	39% 961-1501 (2462)
SM smoltraderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$641.86	$81.41	-$560.45	44% 1950-2484 (4434)
JA JamesAltucherCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$614.04	$51	-$563.04	74% 99-35 (134)
J- J-E-RCTR<$100	Yes	$50.49	$50.49	+$0	42% 160-217 (377)
UP uprightuserCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$393.7	$50	-$343.7	70% 167-72 (239)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$706.29	$46.54	-$659.75	53% 3234-2906 (6140)
BE Better-ManCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$275	$34.92	-$240.07	69% 353-160 (513)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$18.99	$2.4	-$16.59	30% 672-1565 (2237)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$25.78	$1.7	-$24.08	6% 14-234 (248)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$3.94	$0.5	-$3.44	39% 2916-4532 (7448)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.6	$0.1	-$1.5	42% 2420-3373 (5793)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$4,166.97

Value

$320.7

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

67%

820-395 (1215)

petanimalCTR

Yes

Invested

$848.33

Value

$104.5

PnL

-$743.83

Record

39%

961-1501 (2462)

smoltraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$641.86

Value

$81.41

PnL

-$560.45

Record

44%

1950-2484 (4434)

JamesAltucherCTR

Yes

Invested

$614.04

Value

$51

PnL

-$563.04

Record

74%

99-35 (134)

J-

J-E-RCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.49

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

160-217 (377)

uprightuserCTR

Yes

Invested

$393.7

Value

$50

PnL

-$343.7

Record

70%

167-72 (239)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$706.29

Value

$46.54

PnL

-$659.75

Record

53%

3234-2906 (6140)

Better-ManCTR

Yes

Invested

$275

Value

$34.92

PnL

-$240.07

Record

69%

353-160 (513)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$16.59

Record

30%

672-1565 (2237)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.78

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$24.08

Record

14-234 (248)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.94

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$3.44

Record

39%

2916-4532 (7448)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.5

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.