Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 91¢ · $23K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 91.1¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares25,656

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$118.85

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL+$3.68

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4836h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 93.1¢	$8.5K	$8.7K	-$199.51	77% 1492-445 (1937)
TH thoodr	Noavg 92.3¢	$8.1K	$8.0K	-$126.84	97% 704-25 (729)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 94¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$105.05	24% 805-2599 (3404)
xxNyx	Noavg 72.8¢	$865.95	$1.1K	+$220.94	82% 1822-408 (2230)
MK MKSafe	Noavg 2.6¢	$45.25	$1.0K	+$1.5K	28% 11-28 (39)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 94.9¢	$839.78	$799.14	-$40.64	56% 18849-15018 (33867)
Haradwaith	Noavg 94.6¢	$525.5	$460.25	-$12.75	40% 6648-10054 (16702)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95¢	$303.41	$288.82	-$11.46	77% 12764-3905 (16669)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 82.8¢	$253.98	$277.16	+$24.14	67% 1172-589 (1761)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88.3¢	$322.5	$179.81	-$14.38	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$113.44	$93.02	-$20.42	48% 2001-2138 (4139)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$243.65	$16.26	+$24.87	47% 4121-4665 (8786)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 89¢	$10.62	$10.73	+$0.11	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$66.34	$9.58	-$0.77	19% 2967-12558 (15525)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$8,482.99

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$199.51

Record

77%

1492-445 (1937)

thoodr

Invested

$8,106.43

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$126.84

Record

97%

704-25 (729)

SPLPB

Invested

$2,728.57

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$105.05

Record

24%

805-2599 (3404)

xxNyx

Invested

$865.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$220.94

Record

82%

1822-408 (2230)

MKSafe

Invested

$45.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$839.78

Value

$799.14

PnL

-$40.64

Record

56%

18849-15018 (33867)

Haradwaith

Invested

$525.5

Value

$460.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$303.41

Value

$288.82

PnL

-$11.46

Record

77%

12764-3905 (16669)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$253.98

Value

$277.16

PnL

+$24.14

Record

67%

1172-589 (1761)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$322.5

Value

$179.81

PnL

-$14.38

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.44

Value

$93.02

PnL

-$20.42

Record

48%

2001-2138 (4139)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$243.65

Value

$16.26

PnL

+$24.87

Record

47%

4121-4665 (8786)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.34

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.77

Record

19%

2967-12558 (15525)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4836h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.