Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 21, 2027

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Thu, Jan 21, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$106.45

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 48¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$551.19

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$53.46

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,327

Combined PnL-$159.91

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 47.7¢	$428.36	$471.82	+$43.45	50% 355-348 (703)
BU buoysCTR	Noavg 51.2¢	$393.36	$368.61	-$24.75	45% 785-949 (1734)
RayGuyCTR	Noavg 51¢	$260.71	$242.99	-$17.72	76% 26-8 (34)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 61.2¢	$229	$178.08	-$50.92	48% 1386-1530 (2916)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 52¢	$160.79	$147	-$13.78	57% 41453-31224 (72677)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$154.11	$123.33	-$30.78	14% 9500-60813 (70313)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 56.9¢	$691.13	$64.3	-$21.1	32% 21174-45399 (66573)
AU auros2<$100	Yesavg 46.4¢	$54.84	$61.46	+$7.21	— 6-7 (13)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 44.4¢	$15.11	$17.91	+$2.8	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$5.72	$4.86	-$0.86	48% 5159-5681 (10840)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$428.36

Value

$471.82

PnL

+$43.45

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

buoysCTR

Invested

$393.36

Value

$368.61

PnL

-$24.75

Record

45%

785-949 (1734)

RayGuyCTR

Invested

$260.71

Value

$242.99

PnL

-$17.72

Record

76%

26-8 (34)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$229

Value

$178.08

PnL

-$50.92

Record

48%

1386-1530 (2916)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$160.79

Value

$147

PnL

-$13.78

Record

57%

41453-31224 (72677)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$154.11

Value

$123.33

PnL

-$30.78

Record

14%

9500-60813 (70313)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$691.13

Value

$64.3

PnL

-$21.1

Record

32%

21174-45399 (66573)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.84

Value

$61.46

PnL

+$7.21

Record

—

6-7 (13)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$2.8

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.86

Record

48%

5159-5681 (10840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.