Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $588 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$587.76
-$28.42
72.5¢ → 90¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 74.7¢ | $199.63 | $205.71 | +$6.08 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
 The-JokerCTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $146.29 | $176.99 | +$22.24 | 68% 1492-693 (2185) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 70.2¢ | $197.99 | $116.32 | +$30.16 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
 mr.oziCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $77.6 | $52.73 | -$24.87 | 69% 1231-565 (1796) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 65.5¢ | $315.8 | $33.01 | -$63.03 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
balthazarInvested
$199.63
Value
$205.71
PnL
+$6.08
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
The-JokerCTRInvested
$146.29
Value
$176.99
PnL
+$22.24
Record
68%
1492-693 (2185)
Invested
$197.99
Value
$116.32
PnL
+$30.16
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
mr.oziCTR<$100Invested
$77.6
Value
$52.73
PnL
-$24.87
Record
69%
1231-565 (1796)
Invested
$315.8
Value
$33.01
PnL
-$63.03
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$2
Value
$3
PnL
+$1
Record
41%
11-16 (27)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.