Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 2.8¢ · $339 held · ended Nov 3

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$339.36

Combined PnL

$125.76

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$163.34

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$122.28

No4 traders

Total Value$88.26

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$3.47

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

372h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$93.03	$90.74	+$149.25	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 81¢	$84.78	$87.76	+$7.98	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
└ No leg	Noavg 81¢	$49.14	$43.99	-$6.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.2¢	$30.63	$43.77	+$14.69
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$76.05	$49.12	-$2.32	15% 435-2472 (2907)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$24.2	$38.5	-$20.42	43% 39-52 (91)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$59.68	$22.18	-$1.59	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
paddaa<$100	Noavg 66¢	$13.2	$19.43	+$6.23	57% 850-654 (1504)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 82¢	$13.97	$15.23	+$1.26	71% 7031-2815 (9846)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.4	$6.23	-$0.91	59% 382-268 (650)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.18	$4.49	-$1.7	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.77	$2.92	-$0.85	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 59.2¢	$5.97	$2.77	-$3.2	48% 6965-7593 (14558)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.03

Value

$90.74

PnL

+$149.25

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$84.78

Value

$87.76

PnL

+$7.98

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

Both legs:

No$49.1481¢-$6.71

Yes$30.6319.2¢+$14.69

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$76.05

Value

$49.12

PnL

-$2.32

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.2

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$20.42

Record

43%

39-52 (91)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.68

Value

$22.18

PnL

-$1.59

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

paddaa<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$6.23

Record

57%

850-654 (1504)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$13.97

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$1.26

Record

71%

7031-2815 (9846)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.91

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$1.7

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.77

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.85

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.97

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$3.2

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

372h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.9%

2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2467.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

2567.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.