Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$409.26

Combined PnL

-$34.69

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 98.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$390.77

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$20.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.49

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL-$55.55

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 87.2¢	$179.28	$183.12	+$20.97	48% 9141-9734 (18875)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$68.12	$68.05	-$0.07	60% 10613-7204 (17817)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$59.12	$59.07	-$0.05	53% 6092-5333 (11425)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$45.12	$45.09	-$0.03	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$19.72	$19.69	-$0.03	54% 6327-5482 (11809)
GayPrideCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.75	$10.96	-$37.69	49% 357-367 (724)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.85	+$0	43% 3021-3946 (6967)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$24.99	$6	-$18.99	35% 17252-31838 (49090)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$35	$5.91	+$0.07	42% 6080-8381 (14461)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.4	$1.53	+$1.13	39% 23-36 (59)

god83743894

Invested

$179.28

Value

$183.12

PnL

+$20.97

Record

48%

9141-9734 (18875)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$68.12

Value

$68.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

10613-7204 (17817)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.07

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6092-5333 (11425)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.12

Value

$45.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$19.72

Value

$19.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

6327-5482 (11809)

GayPrideCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$10.96

PnL

-$37.69

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

3021-3946 (6967)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

PnL

-$18.99

Record

35%

17252-31838 (49090)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

6080-8381 (14461)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$1.13

Record

39%

23-36 (59)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.