Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$275.24

Combined PnL

-$22

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 98.9¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$259.34

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$10.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.9

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL-$11.36

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$68.64	$68.43	-$0.21	60% 10613-7204 (17817)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$59.63	$59.4	-$0.23	53% 6092-5333 (11425)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$45.48	$45.34	-$0.14	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$69.58	$39.6	-$0.16	48% 9141-9734 (18875)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.8	-$0.06	54% 6327-5482 (11809)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$36.52	$16.83	-$0.11	52% 3221-2947 (6168)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$12.57	$14.11	+$1.54	39% 23-36 (59)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$20.35	$9.94	-$9.73	43% 3021-3946 (6967)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$14.69	$1.79	-$12.9	35% 17252-31838 (49090)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$68.64

Value

$68.43

PnL

-$0.21

Record

60%

10613-7204 (17817)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$59.63

Value

$59.4

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

6092-5333 (11425)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.48

Value

$45.34

PnL

-$0.14

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$69.58

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

9141-9734 (18875)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

6327-5482 (11809)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$36.52

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

3221-2947 (6168)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.57

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$1.54

Record

39%

23-36 (59)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$20.35

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$9.73

Record

43%

3021-3946 (6967)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.69

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$12.9

Record

35%

17252-31838 (49090)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.