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3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$1.7K
-$9.29
99.8¢ → 99.1¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE pelik | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$10.84 | 99% 1315-4 (1319) |
 CosmicCedar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $188.72 | $189.19 | +$0.47 | 8% 8-96 (104) |
PV pvc975 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $162.92 | $164.21 | +$1.28 | 99% 148-2 (150) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.3 | $0.1 | -$0.2 | 13% 46-303 (349) |
IT ItlliccaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | — |
BL BlaorraCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | — |
AV AvvnnnnCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | — |
HY HypurrrrrrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | — |
Invested
$1,374.45
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$10.84
Record
99%
1315-4 (1319)
CosmicCedarInvested
$188.72
Value
$189.19
PnL
+$0.47
Record
8%
8-96 (104)
Invested
$162.92
Value
$164.21
PnL
+$1.28
Record
99%
148-2 (150)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.2
Record
13%
46-303 (349)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.