Will PP win the second-most seats in Barcelona in the 2026 Spanish general election?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 30

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$126.7

Combined PnL

$2.67

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$85.51

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$1.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$41.19

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$3.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 86¢	$81.01	$79.67	-$1.34	— 8-9 (17)
longliveapplesCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$36.16	$40.03	+$3.87	0% 0-25 (25)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.74	$5.84	+$0.1	40% 3003-4412 (7415)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.12	$1.16	+$0.04	— 1-10 (11)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$81.01

Value

$79.67

PnL

-$1.34

Record

—

8-9 (17)

longliveapplesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.16

Value

$40.03

PnL

+$3.87

Record

0-25 (25)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

3003-4412 (7415)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.0%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.