Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Pete Hegseth be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 40¢ · $474 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$474.49

Combined PnL

$7.72

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$94.88

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$15.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.36

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$8

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 78.7¢	$260.76	$215.45	-$45.3	41% 3064-4447 (7511)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.7¢	$203.76	$116.45	-$87.3
└ No leg	Noavg 19¢	$57	$99	+$42
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 82.8¢	$161.6	$124.8	-$36.8	4% 1-24 (25)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82.8¢	$132.54	$72	-$60.54
└ No leg	Noavg 18.2¢	$29.06	$52.8	+$23.74
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$39.59	$39.59	+$0	66% 4080-2099 (6179)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 69.6¢	$29.6	$29.31	-$0.29	53% 5469-4897 (10366)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$9.9	$10.5	+$0.6	9% 38-370 (408)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$10.2	$10.2	+$0	27% 909-2509 (3418)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 79.5¢	$17.75	$10.05	-$7.7	77% 17-5 (22)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$3.9	$8.28	+$4.38	44% 1080-1379 (2459)
ifyoulovemeCTR<$100	Noavg 36.7¢	$8.03	$7.65	-$0.38	51% 261-247 (508)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$2.73	$6.93	+$4.2	78% 263-73 (336)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 13.9¢	$1.82	$4.33	+$2.51	39% 603-947 (1550)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.85	$2.35	+$1.49	44% 254-318 (572)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.61	$1.69	+$1.07	38% 283-455 (738)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.77	$1.68	+$0.92	38% 287-478 (765)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.76	$1.67	+$0.91	43% 268-351 (619)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$260.76

Value

$215.45

PnL

-$45.3

Record

41%

3064-4447 (7511)

Both legs:

Yes$203.7678.7¢-$87.3

No$5719¢+$42

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$161.6

Value

$124.8

PnL

-$36.8

Record

1-24 (25)

Both legs:

Yes$132.5482.8¢-$60.54

No$29.0618.2¢+$23.74

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$39.59

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

4080-2099 (6179)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.6

Value

$29.31

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

5469-4897 (10366)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.6

Record

38-370 (408)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

909-2509 (3418)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.75

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$7.7

Record

77%

17-5 (22)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$4.38

Record

44%

1080-1379 (2459)

ifyoulovemeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

261-247 (508)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$4.2

Record

78%

263-73 (336)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$2.51

Record

39%

603-947 (1550)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.85

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$1.49

Record

44%

254-318 (572)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.61

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$1.07

Record

38%

283-455 (738)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.77

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.92

Record

38%

287-478 (765)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.91

Record

43%

268-351 (619)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.0%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$138.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

238.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.