Will Person 1 be the next Speaker of the Knesset?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$41.44

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 96.3¢

+25% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$485.1

Total Shares914

Combined PnL+$205.98

No13 traders

Total Value$455.06

Total Shares910

Combined PnL-$247.42

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$120.62	$338.2	+$217.58	45% 132-162 (294)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 47¢	$120.62	$256.96	+$136.34	41% 3104-4461 (7565)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.8¢	$20.48	$150.39	+$129.91
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$100.14	$106.56	+$6.43
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 53.9¢	$158.5	$146.9	-$11.6	0% 0-42 (42)
balthazar	Noavg 78.7¢	$208.01	$132.11	-$75.9	51% 4609-4510 (9119)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 94.1¢	$117.64	$62.5	-$55.14	26% 851-2483 (3334)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 92¢	$115	$62.5	-$52.5	14% 60-372 (432)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 44¢	$29.66	$33.7	+$4.04	5% 1-19 (20)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$25.33	$29.19	+$3.86	23% 84-282 (366)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$51.31	$26.48	-$24.83	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93¢	$46.5	$25	-$21.5	30% 2667-6201 (8868)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$34.42	$22.59	-$11.84	27% 928-2514 (3442)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 68¢	$27.2	$20	-$7.2	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$13.03	$15	+$1.97	15% 58-330 (388)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.9	$15	-$12.9	21% 66-241 (307)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 28¢	$3.92	$7	+$3.08	78% 326-91 (417)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 32¢	$2.56	$4	+$1.44	37% 3161-5372 (8533)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.62

Value

$338.2

PnL

+$217.58

Record

45%

132-162 (294)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$120.62

Value

$256.96

PnL

+$136.34

Record

41%

3104-4461 (7565)

Both legs:

Yes$20.486.8¢+$129.91

No$100.1447¢+$6.43

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.5

Value

$146.9

PnL

-$11.6

Record

0-42 (42)

balthazar

Invested

$208.01

Value

$132.11

PnL

-$75.9

Record

51%

4609-4510 (9119)

graynotebook19

Invested

$117.64

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$55.14

Record

26%

851-2483 (3334)

smallreceipt

Invested

$115

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

14%

60-372 (432)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$29.66

Value

$33.7

PnL

+$4.04

Record

1-19 (20)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.33

Value

$29.19

PnL

+$3.86

Record

23%

84-282 (366)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$51.31

Value

$26.48

PnL

-$24.83

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$21.5

Record

30%

2667-6201 (8868)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$34.42

Value

$22.59

PnL

-$11.84

Record

27%

928-2514 (3442)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$7.2

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$13.03

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.97

Record

15%

58-330 (388)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$15

PnL

-$12.9

Record

21%

66-241 (307)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

PnL

+$3.08

Record

78%

326-91 (417)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

PnL

+$1.44

Record

37%

3161-5372 (8533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.