Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $808 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$808.31
-$15.12
12.9¢ → 9.5¢
-26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
593h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 87¢ | $300.41 | $298.68 | -$1.73 | 53% 6241-5478 (11719) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $188.59 | $259.99 | +$71.4 | 50% 1064-1075 (2139) |
 XieGuangKunCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $210 | $120 | -$75 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $96.74 | $84.52 | -$12.22 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $29 | $36.17 | +$7.17 | 43% 132-177 (309) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $16.39 | $8.95 | -$4.74 | 77% 11089-3382 (14471) |
Invested
$300.41
Value
$298.68
PnL
-$1.73
Record
53%
6241-5478 (11719)
Invested
$188.59
Value
$259.99
PnL
+$71.4
Record
50%
1064-1075 (2139)
XieGuangKunCTRInvested
$210
Value
$120
PnL
-$75
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
Invested
$96.74
Value
$84.52
PnL
-$12.22
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Invested
$29
Value
$36.17
PnL
+$7.17
Record
43%
132-177 (309)
Invested
$16.39
Value
$8.95
PnL
-$4.74
Record
77%
11089-3382 (14471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.