Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.5K
-$337.46
83.3¢ → 72¢
-14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
812h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$367.87 | 68% 247-118 (365) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.8¢ | $2.4K | $1.2K | +$51.03 | 34% 19523-37138 (56661) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 73.4¢ | $591.67 | $584.75 | -$6.92 | 53% 8666-7771 (16437) |
JE Jesetrading | Noavg 87¢ | $6.22 | $131.84 | -$25.67 | 67% 664-323 (987) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $85.19 | $77.63 | -$7.56 | 40% 6623-9994 (16617) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $18.26 | $40.15 | +$21.9 | 56% 18843-15011 (33854) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $20.64 | $18.27 | -$2.37 | 73% 3016-1101 (4117) |
ThanksGivingTurkey1001Invested
$1,944.79
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$367.87
Record
68%
247-118 (365)
Invested
$2,399.18
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$51.03
Record
34%
19523-37138 (56661)
Invested
$591.67
Value
$584.75
PnL
-$6.92
Record
53%
8666-7771 (16437)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$131.84
PnL
-$25.67
Record
67%
664-323 (987)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$85.19
Value
$77.63
PnL
-$7.56
Record
40%
6623-9994 (16617)
Invested
$18.26
Value
$40.15
PnL
+$21.9
Record
56%
18843-15011 (33854)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$20.64
Value
$18.27
PnL
-$2.37
Record
73%
3016-1101 (4117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.