Will OpenAI have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $243 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$242.89

Combined PnL

-$25.98

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99.1¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$233.24

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$4.74

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.54

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL-$21.24

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.2¢	$166.28	$169.63	+$3.35	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$31.9	$32.03	+$0.13	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$25.26	$25.37	+$0.1	58% 864-619 (1483)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$23.43	$6.13	-$17.31	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.03	$5.02	-$0.01	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$3.91	$2.71	-$1.2	— 0-1 (1)
balthazar	Noavg 98.7¢	$503.26	$1.19	-$8.32	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$54.9	$0.43	-$2.01	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.28	-$0.72	— 12-4 (16)

cigarettes

Invested

$166.28

Value

$169.63

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$32.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.26

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.43

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$17.31

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

0-1 (1)

balthazar

Invested

$503.26

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$8.32

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.9

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.01

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.72

Record

—

12-4 (16)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.