Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 17¢ · $638 held · ends Dec 31

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$637.68

Combined PnL

-$8.66

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$324.56

Total Shares1,909

Combined PnL-$3.37

No5 traders

Total Value$313.12

Total Shares377

Combined PnL-$5.29

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

845h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$5.24	$307.22	-$10.42	45% 748-896 (1644)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84.8¢	$115.39	$115.75	+$0.35	34% 19419-36966 (56385)
Haradwaith	No	$107.57	$107.57	-$5.18	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
wish-<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$69.28	$66.4	-$2.8	79% 1227-323 (1550)
jesterthegoose<$100	Noavg 73¢	$16.3	$18.53	+$2.34	81% 656-151 (807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$17.34	$17.34	+$7.05	52% 160-150 (310)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$4.88	$4.88	-$0.01	59% 1021-711 (1732)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$307.22

PnL

-$10.42

Record

45%

748-896 (1644)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$115.39

Value

$115.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

34%

19419-36966 (56385)

Haradwaith

Invested

$107.57

Value

$107.57

PnL

-$5.18

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

wish-<$100

Invested

$69.28

Value

$66.4

PnL

-$2.8

Record

79%

1227-323 (1550)

jesterthegoose<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$2.34

Record

81%

656-151 (807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17.34

PnL

+$7.05

Record

52%

160-150 (310)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

1021-711 (1732)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

845h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.6%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$437.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

537.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.