Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $959 held · ends Dec 31

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$958.59

Combined PnL

$31.83

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 83¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$382.18

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL+$61.04

No6 traders

Total Value$576.41

Total Shares707

Combined PnL-$29.22

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

919h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 17.5¢	$315.58	$334.33	+$25.73	45% 785-949 (1734)
RayGuy	Noavg 90¢	$292.05	$268.95	-$23.1	77% 30-9 (39)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.2¢	$112.61	$113.66	+$1.05	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
Haradwaith	Noavg 87¢	$112.76	$105.63	-$7.13	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
wish-<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$69.28	$65.2	-$2.4	79% 1261-327 (1588)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.24	$28.98	+$26.74	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$10.29	$18.87	+$8.58	52% 168-153 (321)
jesterthegoose<$100	Noavg 73¢	$16.3	$18.19	+$2.46	81% 671-153 (824)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$4.88	$4.79	-$0.09	59% 1054-736 (1790)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$315.58

Value

$334.33

PnL

+$25.73

Record

45%

785-949 (1734)

RayGuy

Invested

$292.05

Value

$268.95

PnL

-$23.1

Record

77%

30-9 (39)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$112.61

Value

$113.66

PnL

+$1.05

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

Haradwaith

Invested

$112.76

Value

$105.63

PnL

-$7.13

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

wish-<$100

Invested

$69.28

Value

$65.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

79%

1261-327 (1588)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.24

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$26.74

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.29

Value

$18.87

PnL

+$8.58

Record

52%

168-153 (321)

jesterthegoose<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$18.19

PnL

+$2.46

Record

81%

671-153 (824)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.09

Record

59%

1054-736 (1790)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

919h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.