Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nvidia be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $115 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$115.14

Combined PnL

-$0.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$112.56

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.41

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.58

Total Shares572

Combined PnL-$0.54

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$40.93	$40.79	-$0.14	34% 231-458 (689)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$32.97	$32.87	-$0.1	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.01	$29.87	-$0.14	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.06	$9.03	-$0.03	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$12.81	$1.89	-$0.26	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.12	$0.55	+$0.43	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.31	$0.05	-$0.26	12% 20-144 (164)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.27	$0.04	-$0.22	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.26	$0.04	-$0.22	16% 22-118 (140)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$40.93

Value

$40.79

PnL

-$0.14

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$32.97

Value

$32.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$30.01

Value

$29.87

PnL

-$0.14

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.81

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.26

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.26

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.22

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.22

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.