Will Nick Parker be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

1 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (5%) · No at 100¢ · $260 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 5%

Total Value

$259.68

Combined PnL

-$138.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 20 top traders (5%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$224.66

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$0.29

Yes19 traders

Total Value$35.01

Total Shares17,506

Combined PnL-$138.68

No — 5%Yes — 95%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

5% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 95% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$224.38	$224.66	+$0.29	34% 231-458 (689)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$109.6	$6.96	-$22.55	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.04	$6	-$22.04	52% 22-20 (42)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$22.52	$4.82	-$17.7	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$18.69	$4	-$14.69	37% 637-1099 (1736)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$12.98	$2.78	-$10.2	41% 28-40 (68)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$2.13	-$7.84	— 5-0 (5)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.35	$2	-$7.35	0% 0-70 (70)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$25.2	$1.6	-$18.91	52% 1637-1538 (3175)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.7	$1.22	-$4.48	47% 16-18 (34)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.04	$0.9	-$3.15	31% 146-327 (473)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$0.5	-$1.84	1% 1-98 (99)
FL FlobodanCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$0.5	-$1.84	— 2-5 (7)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$32.02	$0.47	-$2.77	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.65	$0.32	-$0.33	13% 76-495 (571)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.09	$0.23	-$0.86	18% 853-3894 (4747)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$0.21	-$0.77	58% 699-503 (1202)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.93	$0.2	-$0.73	—
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$0.16	-$0.59	— 10-1 (11)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.05	27% 667-1774 (2441)

god83743894

Invested

$224.38

Value

$224.66

PnL

+$0.29

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.6

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$22.55

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.04

Value

PnL

-$22.04

Record

52%

22-20 (42)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.52

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$17.7

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.69

Value

PnL

-$14.69

Record

37%

637-1099 (1736)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$10.2

Record

41%

28-40 (68)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$7.84

Record

—

5-0 (5)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

PnL

-$7.35

Record

0-70 (70)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.2

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$18.91

Record

52%

1637-1538 (3175)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$4.48

Record

47%

16-18 (34)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$3.15

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.84

Record

1-98 (99)

FlobodanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.84

Record

—

2-5 (7)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.02

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2.77

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.33

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.86

Record

18%

853-3894 (4747)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.73

Record

—

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.59

Record

—

10-1 (11)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 20 top traders (5%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

5% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 95% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.