Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 96¢ · $71 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$71.15
$2.25
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $32.47 | $24.78 | -$7.69 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $2.11 | $14.9 | +$12.79 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $10.61 | $8.36 | -$2.25 | 17% 1028-5005 (6033) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $10.88 | $8.24 | -$2.63 | 72% 12221-4831 (17052) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $14.46 | $7.48 | -$4.2 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.56 | $5.05 | +$4.49 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
35 35066FE58feCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.59 | $2.34 | +$1.75 | 42% 641-882 (1523) |
Invested
$32.47
Value
$24.78
PnL
-$7.69
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$14.9
PnL
+$12.79
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Invested
$10.61
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$2.25
Record
17%
1028-5005 (6033)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$8.24
PnL
-$2.63
Record
72%
12221-4831 (17052)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$14.46
Value
$7.48
PnL
-$4.2
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$4.49
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Invested
$0.59
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$1.75
Record
42%
641-882 (1523)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.