Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Mike Johnson be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
No 67%
$114.8
-$102.34
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $60 | +$0.06 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $15.9 | $16.01 | +$0.1 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.78 | $8.79 | +$0.01 | 25% 92-281 (373) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.63 | — 3-14 (17) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $369.63 | — | -$13.33 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $68.34 | — | -$2.1 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.81 | — | -$0.92 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
 Robbb<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | — 5-0 (5) |
Invested
$59.94
Value
$60
PnL
+$0.06
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
—
PnL
-$85.56
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$16.01
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.79
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
92-281 (373)
Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
3-14 (17)
Invested
$369.63
Value
—
PnL
-$13.33
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
Invested
$68.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
Invested
$29.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Robbb<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
5-0 (5)