Will Meta have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $328 held · ends Dec 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$328.22

Combined PnL

$7.86

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.9¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$303.88

Total Shares305

Combined PnL+$0.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.35

Total Shares738

Combined PnL+$7.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$192.85	$129.66	-$2.26	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$97.06	$99.7	+$2.64	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
iutwpfal<$100	Noavg 96¢	$76.8	$44.87	+$2.07	— 10-4 (14)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$99.7	$29.66	-$1.69	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$13.07	$16.42	+$3.35	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.4	$6.6	+$4.2	— 0-1 (1)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.21	$0.66	-$0.54	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.66	+$0.09	8% 9-110 (119)

balthazar

Invested

$192.85

Value

$129.66

PnL

-$2.26

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$97.06

Value

$99.7

PnL

+$2.64

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

iutwpfal<$100

Invested

$76.8

Value

$44.87

PnL

+$2.07

Record

—

10-4 (14)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$99.7

Value

$29.66

PnL

-$1.69

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.07

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$3.35

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

—

0-1 (1)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.54

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.09

Record

9-110 (119)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.