Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 22 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Matthew McConaughey win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

22 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares947,277

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

139h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$127.75	$516.51	-$450.91	41% 166-240 (406)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.8K	$311.94	$-3.5K	66% 760-388 (1148)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.72	$307.14	-$530.89	43% 1406-1854 (3260)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.97	$124.97	-$116.65	66% 949-498 (1447)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$118.11	-$103.11	64% 154-88 (242)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$23.74	-$22.91	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$20.65	-$24.91	68% 2083-977 (3060)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$11.58	$13.15	+$1.57	41% 1410-2049 (3459)
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$160.93	$10.3	-$150.63	6% 14-231 (245)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$7.05	-$6.78	79% 2712-700 (3412)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.8	$6.56	+$0.76	53% 3042-2720 (5762)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$43.03	$5.47	-$37.57	31% 653-1432 (2085)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.3	$4.01	-$47.29	52% 1670-1542 (3212)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$45.37	$3.1	-$42.27	49% 1837-1904 (3741)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.72	$0.72	-$0.67	73% 2967-1078 (4045)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.59	$0.55	-$8.04	82% 2917-621 (3538)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yes	$0.5	$0.5	+$0.5	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.43	$0.28	-$4.15	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.97	$0.25	-$1.72	40% 655-985 (1640)
TU tugatorCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.24	$0.24	+$0	85% 2885-490 (3375)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.04	+$0.01	32% 6357-13253 (19610)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	59% 994-697 (1691)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.75

Value

$516.51

PnL

-$450.91

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,805.71

Value

$311.94

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

66%

760-388 (1148)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.72

Value

$307.14

PnL

-$530.89

Record

43%

1406-1854 (3260)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.97

Value

$124.97

PnL

-$116.65

Record

66%

949-498 (1447)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$118.11

PnL

-$103.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$23.74

PnL

-$22.91

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$24.91

Record

68%

2083-977 (3060)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$1.57

Record

41%

1410-2049 (3459)

NyetRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.93

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$150.63

Record

14-231 (245)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$6.78

Record

79%

2712-700 (3412)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.56

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

3042-2720 (5762)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.03

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$37.57

Record

31%

653-1432 (2085)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.3

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$47.29

Record

52%

1670-1542 (3212)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.37

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$42.27

Record

49%

1837-1904 (3741)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.67

Record

73%

2967-1078 (4045)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.59

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$8.04

Record

82%

2917-621 (3538)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$4.15

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.72

Record

40%

655-985 (1640)

tugatorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0

Record

85%

2885-490 (3375)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

6357-13253 (19610)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

994-697 (1691)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

139h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.