Will Marco Rubio be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$50.12

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,991

Combined PnL+$94.34

Yes6 traders

Total Value$26.17

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL-$144.46

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Noavg 88.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$61.5	57% 52-40 (92)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.1¢	$180.34	$49.46	+$32.84	34% 19360-36909 (56269)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$170	$17.25	-$152.75	57% 1132-860 (1992)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$3.45	+$24	46% 748-895 (1643)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$7.25	$3.37	-$3.88	68% 2114-997 (3111)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$11.45	$1.51	-$9.94	56% 18829-14997 (33826)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$2.4	$0.58	-$1.83	16% 389-1977 (2366)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.08	$0.02	-$0.06	40% 6553-9836 (16389)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Invested

$1,720.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$61.5

Record

57%

52-40 (92)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$180.34

Value

$49.46

PnL

+$32.84

Record

34%

19360-36909 (56269)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$152.75

Record

57%

1132-860 (1992)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$24

Record

46%

748-895 (1643)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$3.88

Record

68%

2114-997 (3111)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.45

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$9.94

Record

56%

18829-14997 (33826)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$1.83

Record

16%

389-1977 (2366)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

40%

6553-9836 (16389)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.