Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 94¢ · $738 held · ends Nov 29

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$738.38

Combined PnL

-$94.56

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 93.8¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$696.29

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$14.62

No8 traders

Total Value$42.09

Total Shares745

Combined PnL-$79.94

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 69.8¢	$459.77	$365.12	-$13.65	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
DavidShekel	Yesavg 95¢	$257.45	$255.69	-$1.76	58% 580-413 (993)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 89.4¢	$88.5	$75.48	+$0.79	41% 6281-9214 (15495)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$19.4	$13.03	-$6.37	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$33.32	$11.42	-$21.9	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$31.46	$8.36	-$23.1	44% 6509-8177 (14686)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 21.6¢	$14.66	$3.84	-$10.82	73% 12907-4853 (17760)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$5.7	$1.7	-$4	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 24.7¢	$7.25	$1.66	-$5.59	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 29.4¢	$7.95	$1.53	-$6.42	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$2.3	$0.57	-$1.73	31% 3522-7876 (11398)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$459.77

Value

$365.12

PnL

-$13.65

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

DavidShekel

Yes

Invested

$257.45

Value

$255.69

PnL

-$1.76

Record

58%

580-413 (993)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.5

Value

$75.48

PnL

+$0.79

Record

41%

6281-9214 (15495)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$13.03

PnL

-$6.37

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$21.9

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$31.46

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$23.1

Record

44%

6509-8177 (14686)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.66

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$10.82

Record

73%

12907-4853 (17760)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$4

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.25

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$5.59

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$6.42

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$1.73

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.