Will Kansas be the closest Senate race in 2026?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$58.69

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 98.4¢

+8% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,906

Combined PnL+$82.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.89

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$23.53

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 85.5¢	$18.28	$342.06	+$37.41	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 87.2¢	$276.21	$308.9	+$32.7	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85¢	$409.2	$259.05	-$29.55	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$211.82	-$2.58	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 86.8¢	$154.44	$175.66	+$22.37	70% 1135-483 (1618)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.8¢	$164.8	$164.58	+$1.49	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 99.9¢	$133.71	$132.1	-$1.61	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 91¢	$126.59	$109.47	+$14.5	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$49.29	$55.42	+$6.13	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$35.49	$36.44	+$0.95	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$35.2	$29.61	+$0.2	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$23.98	$24.67	+$0.69	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.53	$20.28	-$0.25	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.01	$17.8	-$0.22	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$27.75	$2.89	-$23.53	51% 97-95 (192)

Haradwaith

Invested

$18.28

Value

$342.06

PnL

+$37.41

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$276.21

Value

$308.9

PnL

+$32.7

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$409.2

Value

$259.05

PnL

-$29.55

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$4.99

Value

$211.82

PnL

-$2.58

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$154.44

Value

$175.66

PnL

+$22.37

Record

70%

1135-483 (1618)

Lucerys

Invested

$164.8

Value

$164.58

PnL

+$1.49

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$133.71

Value

$132.1

PnL

-$1.61

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

smallreceipt

Invested

$126.59

Value

$109.47

PnL

+$14.5

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$55.42

PnL

+$6.13

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$35.49

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$0.95

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$29.61

PnL

+$0.2

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$23.98

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$0.69

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.53

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$18.01

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.75

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$23.53

Record

51%

97-95 (192)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.